States where the margin is <5% are shown as toss-up. The original election projection website, since 2003. Over the last eight election cycles, Election Projection has correctly named the winner in 96.6% of the 3,665 races called.
Once the nominees are known, Election Projection employs a proprietary formula to arrive at a projection for all the races covered here. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. I am staunchly conservative in ideology, but I am just as staunchly objective when it comes to calculating election winners. Help me bring that number down to zero. October 7: Iowa moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up; NE-2 and Pennsylvania from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (95%+).
The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Louis Jacobson for U.S. News & World Report.
Updated multiple times each day except Sunday, Election Projection's latest polls are a valuable resource as well for those seeking every last bit of info on the important races of the cycle. Read the Analysis. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible. Click here for projected margins of victory. Here we go again? Please click here to contribute to EP's GoFundMe campaign. Therefore, I do not necessarily endorse the products and/or services shown. For every $25, it will decrease by one. September 29: Arizona and NE-2 move from Toss-up to Leans Democratic; ME-2 moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up. SENATE GOP 49 -4 DEM 49 +4. Don’t count the underdog out! The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. Since you're here, you probably share my interest in politics - and especially election outcomes. 2020 ELECTIONS ON DEMAND. Take a look around. The model first averages the polls, weighting them by their sample sizes and correcting them for tendencies to overestimate support for one party. (Number updated daily). You can view the full series of three maps here. The current electoral college projection from NPR. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (65%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (95%+). Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 electoral map forecast. Biden win. Updated every two hours, this is an electoral map projection derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast. Therefore, I do not necessarily endorse the products and/or services shown. Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day. October 12: Iowa and Ohio move from Leans Republican to Toss-up; Kansas and Missouri from Safe to Likely Republican; NE-2 and Wisconsin from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.
For every $25, it will decrease by one. The 2016 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used where there are no polls.
Welcome to Election Projection. Here you'll find data-driven calculations that gauge the status of all Senate, House and gubernatorial elections on tap for 2020, as well as state-by-state coverage of the 2020 Presidential Elections. From CNN: "As President Donald Trump remains infected with coronavirus and absent from the campaign trail, his campaign finds itself in its worst political position since the start of the campaign season. Thank you for stopping by. Note that NPR is using the 'Likely' terminology to cover what others call 'Safe'. (Number updated daily). I think you'll find Election Projection to be just the kind of online repository you're looking for. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.September 29: Iowa and Ohio move from Leans Republican to Toss-up. HOUSE GOP 194 -7 DEM 241 +8. Home; Blogs. The Hoosier State loves its basketball and likes its Republicans pretty well, too. October 21: NE-1 moves from Likely to Safe Republican. The 2020 Map Begins with Florida. University of Virginia Center for Politics, Cook Political Report Electoral College Forecast, The Economist's US Presidential Election Forecast, The Economist's US presidential election forecast, Decision Desk | 0ptimus 2020 Presidential Forecast, Decision Desk | 0ptimus 2020 Presidential Election Model, JHK Forecasts Presidential Election Forecast, JHK Forecasts presidential election forecast, Interactive Map for the FiveThirtyEight House Forecast. Please click here to contribute to EP's GoFundMe campaign. We do have a polling map; the two should converge as the election nears and forecasters/models place more weight on the polls. As the election nears, my numbers become more predictive in nature. Part of the Princeton Election Consortium polling-derived forecast series for the likelihood of a Biden or Trump victory in each state. A state is shown as toss-up where the probability is 60% or less.