The broadest measure of scatter is the Total Range from the lowest to the highest value. The chart below plots the average number of days in any month that you can expect to see rain falling. Some of the 20 mm “bins” near the middle have less than 2% of the observations, while others have over 5%. Forward to Extremes Part III. Times of reliable rainfall came in 1908 and 1936 (both dry). [For an explanation of kurtosis, see the post “Kurtosis, Fat Tails and Extremes”. The first two graphs  are new versions of graphs in an earlier post, published also as an article in “The Manilla Express” (28/2/17) and in the “North West Magazine” (20/3/17). This represents the average number of hours in the daytime that the sun is visible and not obscured by cloud e.g. Growth in the 58 years from 1920 to 1978 came at the phenomenal and unsustainable rate of 33 mm per decade. ], Another departure from normality is that the curve is skewed: the tail on the left is shorter than the one on the right. The pattern is plain. These three features describe a platykurtic curve: one with low kurtosis. September 2020 They were less extreme than usual from the 1900’s through to the 1930’s. “This Manilla rainfall record is one counter-example to the snow-balling catalogue of reported extreme climatic events.” The climate profile is taken from closest available data source to Bundaberg. The second graph also groups the data twenty-one years at a time. That ratio, when smoothed, is plotted on the main graph at the head of the page. What feels unbearably cold to one person for a swim might be fine for another. The lowest data point is close to the 5th percentile and the highest data point is close to the 95th percentile of a similar continuous curve. Skewness: 0.268 (slightly positive). It is due to just one data item: the annual rainfall reading of 1129 mm in the year 1890, which was the highest ever. That further reduced the years that could be plotted to those from 1897 to 2002. The re-drawn graphs of historical records in this post use a 21-year sampling window, as before. By the 1970’s, elderly residents of Manilla would have seen rainfall increase decade by decade throughout their lives. (I noted this pattern of growth and collapse in an earlier post about Manilla’s summer rainfall.). More scatter or spread means the rainfall was less reliable. Those two episodes differ, however: in the 1950’s only the high tail was heavy; in the 1990’s, only the low tail was heavy. The Maximum Value in 1897 was the most extreme value that appears on this graph: 475 mm above the mean! My new title refers to “near-mean” scatter. The terrain: mostly low plateau with deserts; fertile plain in southeast. Forward to Extremes Part III. For example, in, [For an explanation of kurtosis, see the post, I have taken this topic very much further in posts such as, [The pattern in Manilla’s history of annual rainfalls is better shown in a graph in, Annual Rainfall Extremes at Manilla NSW: IV, Annual Rainfall Extremes at Manilla NSW: III, Annual Rainfall Extremes at Manilla NSW: II, Annual Rainfall Extremes at Manilla NSW: I, August 2020: still gripped by extreme drought. From those values I have plotted the height of the maximum value above the mean (red) and the depth of the lowest value below the mean (green). [In later work, I use kurtosis as a measure of extremes. Few alive now will remember that Manilla’s rainfall really was much lower in the 1930’s.”, In addition, this new version makes the pattern of growth and sudden collapse obvious. When expressed in millimetres of annual rainfall, that is less than 395 mm or more than 909 mm. As before, there were more extremes in the 1940’s and 1950’s. In the third graph, I have drawn (in magenta) a new model distribution that is platykurtic. The pattern has not yet become smooth. To get a percentage value, I divided by 21. Does this Manilla rainfall record show more extreme events since that date? Back to Extremes Part I. As before, one can say: The chart below plots the average daily wind speed you can expect for any month. Back to Extremes Part III. Bundaberg daily rain summaries including extremes, records and averages as well as archived historical data. Monthly and seasonal weather reports for Manilla now extend back more than thirteen years to June 2007. Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. The graph relies on the long-term Normal Distribution curve (“L-T Norm. The actual figures make little sense, jumping up or down from one year to the next. Bundaberg daily rain summaries including extremes, records and averages as well as archived historical data from Farmonline Weather. Ratios above 1.0 are Heavy Tails, and ratios below 1.0 are Light Tails. On the first two graphs I have drawn the curve of normal distribution that best fits the data. The figures here have been calmed down. These Tails are the parts that I will call “extreme”. The plot on this second graph is changed only by better smoothing. The number of years of records available for the relevant field for this month is indicated in black. Maps and tables of average conditions for locations across Australia are also available. In them, the peak is well below the mean, and a tail extends to rare high values.). I realised that the Inter-quartile Range is not a good general indicator of spread or, in this case, of reliability of rainfall (as I had assumed). Bundaberg maximum temp history (24.8661°S, 152.3488°E, 18m AMSL) Hottest ever this month: 35.8° 31/10/2001: Hottest this year: 34.9° 20/02/2020: Hottest this month However, Manilla’s annual rainfall record can be analysed to show extreme events. Overnight rain in the catchment flowed into Moneys Creek Lagoon at Kellys Beach. Back to the prelude “Manilla’s Yearly Rainfall History”. However, it also says nothing about extremes, which will lie far out in the residual 32% “tails” of the data. The new curve fits much better up both flanks of the data curve. There are several features to notice. A following post discusses kurtosis as another measure, with a different result. We have created our own Swimming Water Temperature Index offering a guide to water temperature and comfort levels for swimming; In October, for the nearest coastal location, the temperature of the sea averages around 23°C, that's 73° Fahrenheit. This is true even for the driest month. Being platykurtic produces a reduced peak, high shoulders, and thin tails, as was noted. Both of the tails are thin. At night the average minimum temperature drops down to around 17°C, that's 63°F. I chose a 21-year sampling window to be wide enough to contain enough points for analysis, without losing time-resolution, or losing too many years at each end of the record from 1883 to 2016. In the previous post, I plotted only the most extreme high and low values of annual rainfall in each sampling window. The following charts show yearly weather trends with information on monthly weather averages and extremes. [Select ARCHIVES for the month following.] It also shows the maximum and minimum recorded temperatures. The Total Range is equal to the sum of the two Extreme Values that are plotted. The climate in Australia is typically generally arid to semiarid; temperate in south and east; tropical in north. The first mid-year of a sampling window was 1893 and the last, 2006. From this a comfort level is calculated providing categories on how heat conditions might adversely affect someone. The median varies much more than the mean does. They have been no more or less extreme than one should expect through all of the last five decades. The Maximum Value in 1980 was rather extreme (about 330 mm above the mean). Rainfall is thought of as a random process, likely to match a curve of normal distribution. Comfort Levels: Given average maximum temperatures and humidity levels generally you should not anticipate any discomfort from heat (see heat index for more information). There is a major mode (peaking at 5.1%) on the left, a minor mode (3.9%) on the right, and an antimode (3.7%) between them. Back to the prelude “Manilla’s Yearly Rainfall History”. The new version uses the median value (the middle, or 50th percentile value) instead. Historical Rainfall Data for Years 1888 to 2020 * Rain Season runs July 1 - June 30 annually. Times of reliable rainfall came in 1908 and 1936 (both dry). It has been argued that human-induced climate change will cause climatic extremes to happen more often in future. That also is a measure of Extreme Value, which I graphed in an earlier post. For example, in “Rainfall Kurtosis vs. HadCRUT4 revised”.]. It is a transform of the normal distribution with a weighted sinusoidal correction. Our index indicates for swimming this is considered warm and would be enjoyed by all, even those who are more likely to suggest the water was ‘too cold’ for a swim. The average daily relative humidity for October is around 70%. That is to say, those that were more than 1.645 times the Standard Deviation (SD = 156 mm) below or above the Mean (M = 652 mm). The chart below plots the average monthly precipitation amount. Include a date for which you would like to see weather history. Standard Deviation (measuring spread or scatter): 156 mm. Dist.” in the legend of the graph). Throughout the month you can expect to see rain or drizzle falling on 5 days of the month. This post considers the Total Range within a 21-year sampling window as a measure of extremes. The earlier version showed the arithmetic mean. If you are after long-term averages relevant to Bundaberg, Queensland, look at the tables for Bundaberg Aero or Bundaberg Post Office. In that article, I said: The first graph (above) represents the normal rainfall as it changes. Much of the poor fit of a normal curve to the data is due to the data having a platykurtic distribution. I defined as “Extreme Values” those either below the 5th percentile or above the 95th percentile of the fitted Normal Distribution. Times of very unreliable rainfall came in 1919 (dry), 1949 (normal) and 1958 (wet). "Manilla 3-year climate trends" graphs and reports extend back to May 2010 as consecutive months. The collapse was was widespread, as was recognised half a century ago. Earlier graphs and reports are accessed in ARCHIVES September 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2008. To maintain relevance to current weather trends the displayed information has been calculated using data collected over the past two decades. In the present case, each calculation uses a sample that includes only 21 points. Forward to Extremes Part IV. Back to the prelude “Manilla’s Yearly Rainfall History”. There are some shape changes: rainfall before 1900 does not plot so high; from 1911 to 1913 there is a respite from drought; the highest rainfall by far now appears from 1970 to 1980. The new version is less “jumpy” due to better smoothing. The first graph helps to make sense of the history of Manilla’s rainfall, using the totals for each year.

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