If he wins by 1-2 points, he has a 22% chance, and so on. Among people of color generally, Biden's advantage has increased from 59% to 31% in September to 69% to 27% now. With two weeks to go before the US presidential election, former vice-president Joe Biden, the Democratic party’s nominee, is polling narrowly ahead of incumbent Republican president Donald Trump in key battleground states, though he has seen his lead narrow in some states since the summer.. Likely voters broadly prefer Biden over Trump on a number of issues that voters consider critically important in the race, including the coronavirus outbreak (59% prefer Biden, 38% Trump), health care (59% to 39%), racial inequality in America (62% to 36%), nominations to the Supreme Court (57% to 41%) and crime and safety (55% to 43%). Tuesday, 1 p.m. Eastern . The issues that matter most to voters continue to vary dramatically with a voter's presidential preference. Nate Silver, a polling expert and head of FiveThirtyEight used models to show how Biden’s margin in the popular vote translates to his chance of winning the election. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, it is plus or minus 3.6 points for results among likely voters. 27 training center, Saturday, Oct. 10, 2020, in Erie, Pa. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster), EY & Citi On The Importance Of Resilience And Innovation, Impact 50: Investors Seeking Profit — And Pushing For Change. If Biden wins by 0-1 percentage points in the popular vote, he stands just a 6% chance of winning the Electoral College over Trump. Previously, I've written for TIME, Newsweek, the New York Daily News and VICE News. Obama goes full throttle for Biden. Biden supporters continue to be far more likely than Trump supporters to say they will vote before Election Day, including 41% who plan to vote by mail and 19% who say they will vote early.

Biden has expanded his edge over Trump among women, from 57% to 37% in September to 66% to 32% now. Regardless of Biden's national lead, the race for the White House will ultimately come down to a handful of swing states that will drive the outcome in the Electoral College. Likely voters are more apt to consider Biden the candidate who would unite the country (61% Biden to 33% Trump), who is honest and trustworthy (58% Biden to 33% Trump), who cares about people like you (58% Biden to 38% Trump), who has a clear plan to solve the nation's problems (55% to 39%) and who would keep Americans safe from harm (55% to 43%). Among registered voters in the poll, 35% consider themselves Democrats, 30% Republican, those figures were 33% and 30% respectively in the previous CNN poll. Most of Trump's supporters, though, say that they do believe the President would concede (63%). Most say they don't expect Trump to accept the results and concede (58%), while 71% say Biden would. Biden is running on the legacy of the eight years he served alongside President Barack Obama and has proposed advancing that legacy on key issues like health care and the climate crisis. Business. In 2016, Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 points, but lost the Electoral College. Among Biden's supporters, 66% call coronavirus extremely important to their vote vs. 21% among Trump backers, 63% say race relations are important vs. 16% of Trump voters, 58% consider health care extremely important vs. 25% of Trump supporters and 51% say climate change is extremely important compared with just 5% of Trump supporters. There is not a single thing we cannot do. Registered voters who support Biden are becoming increasingly confident that votes in the country will be cast and counted accurately (75% now vs. 65% in August), while the share of Trump supporters who feel that way has softened some (from 50% to 44%).

The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS October 1 through 4 among a random national sample of 1,205 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer, including 1,001 likely voters. Those voters who say they watched last week's debate largely see Biden as having done the best job (57%), with only 26% saying Trump did best, similar to the divide in a. 27 training center, Saturday, Oct. 10, 2020, in Erie, Pa. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster). “That's never been the case with an incumbent since 1936 at this point.”. A poll is not a prediction of how the election will ultimately turn out but instead is a snapshot of the race as it currently stands. I cover national politics for Forbes. Among Trump's backers, though, 76% say they will vote in-person on Election Day.

Although nearly all Americans agree (86%) that the loser of the presidential race has an obligation to concede once the results are certified, Trump supporters are slightly less likely to say that than they were in August (78% now vs. 83% in August, it was 94% among Biden supporters in both polls). The former vice president has also made gains among younger voters, moderates and independents over the last month. That shift includes substantial gains for Biden among white women with college degrees and women of color. After three major national polls released this week showed Joe Biden ahead by double digits over President Trump, the Democratic nominee has jumped out to a 10 point lead on average in national polls, a much stronger position than Hillary Clinton was in at any point in the 2016 race. Six in 10 Americans say they are confident that votes will be cast and counted accurately in the presidential election, up slightly since August. Joe Biden is the Former vice president of the United States and is a candidate in the 2020 US presidential election.

One point of agreement emerges, though: About half of both Biden (53%) and Trump (48%) supporters call Supreme Court nominations extremely important. Clinton never reached that margin in national polling averages, and was ahead by 3-4 points in polling averages in the last few days before Election Day. I'm a news reporter for Forbes. When independents who lean toward one party or the other are added in, the results also show little movement, 53% of registered voters now are Democrats or lean that way, 43% are Republicans or lean that way.

': Clapper questions news conference timing, 'Shoddy' coronavirus study linked to Steve Bannon, See Obama's reaction to Trump's conspiracy tweets, Van Jones on Obama's speech: Superman is back in the building, new nationwide CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. Previously, I've written for TIME, Newsweek, the New York Daily News and VICE News. Prior to his time as vice president, Biden represented Delaware in the US Senate for 36 years. (CNN)Joe Biden's advantage over President Donald Trump has expanded and the former vice president now holds his widest lead of the cycle with less than a month remaining before Election Day, according to a new nationwide CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. By Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Polling Director. Joe Biden's advantage over President Donald Trump has expanded and the former vice president now holds his widest lead of the cycle with less than a …

All Rights Reserved, This is a BETA experience. The poll of polls includes the most recent polls which meet CNN’s. and mostly after the President's coronavirus infection was made public. Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden speaks at the Plumbers Local Union ... [+] No. Trump's backers are far more likely than Biden supporters to say crime and safety (51% extremely important among Trump supporters vs. 33% among Biden supporters) and the economy (48% among Trump supporters, 36% among Biden supporters) are top concerns in their vote. Jack Brewster Forbes Staff.

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