JUST IN: Donald Trump Took $150,000 In Federal Relief Aid Meant... ‘The View’ Co-Host Joy Behar Goes NUCLEAR On Donald Trump Accusing... Trump Loses Control During Sexist Tirade: Says Hillary Will Let Muslims... Do Not Sell My Personal Information (CCPA). October 9: Seven changes. The Cook Political Report, which also maintains an electoral college forecast, estimates that the race could turn out pretty close. The president won in Florida in 2016, grabbing a sizable 29 Electoral College votes, the nation’s largest swing state. The site, which compiles election-related statistics, gives President Donald Trump an only 24 percent chance of successfully winning re-election. More blue bars means the country has swung more Democratic, more red bars means it's more Republican. State Biden Trump … That would put Biden’s victory in the realm of re-election victories of Franklin D. Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan, both of whom won over 500 electoral votes in their respective races for re-election. The […] The smaller, lighter lines are the 2016 polling/results. If Trump were to win Florida again, Democrats would need to recapture three Midwestern states in the Rust Belt — or find substitutes — to win the presidency. Even with that forecast, the GOP has much more ground to make up than Democrats. The midpoint is the estimate of the electoral-college vote for each party on election day. In the 2020 race, FiveThirtyEight estimates as of Wednesday afternoon that Pennsylvania is the state that’s most likely to put the winning candidate over the top. Estimated electoral college votes. We label those … As of Wednesday afternoon, they estimate that there’s a one percent chance that neither candidate secures an electoral college majority, which would mean the election would have to be decided by Congress, with one “vote” going to the Congressional delegation from each state. The thick line the arrows are pointing to marks the current 2020 polling. 270 Electoral Votes. The latest electoral college projections from FiveThirtyEight suggest that a major “blue wave” is on the way. On the flip side of that, there’s a chance — albeit a small one of seemingly about one percent — that Biden could win the election with over 500 electoral votes. Mr Obama won the state in 2012 and … The latest electoral college projections from FiveThirtyEight suggest that a major “blue wave” is on the way. The bar and arrow between them shows how the numbers have swung. Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict a range of outcomes. Presidential candidates need to secure at least 270 electoral votes in order to win the presidency, and according to FiveThirtyEight’s latest forecast, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a 75 percent chance of winning the electoral college. In 2012, the Obama-Biden ticket won Florida by less than one percent. A simple, straighforward, electoral college based 2020 Presedential Election projection model and polling aggregator. As of Wednesday afternoon, Biden leads in polls in the state by an average of 4.8 percent. In Pennsylvania, FiveThirtyEight currently estimates that Biden has a 75 percent chance of winning. As of Wednesday afternoon, they estimate that Democrats can count on just 279 electoral votes as at least “leaning” Democratic, while they’ve got 72 electoral votes in the toss-up column and 187 electoral votes at least “leaning” Republican. Jan 2020 Mar 2020 May 2020 Jul 2020 Sep 2020 Nov 2020 50 100 150 200 250 300 350. Or check out our state specific IG accounts: The Washington Post/George Mason University, Global Strategy Group/GBAO (Navigator Research), Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson, Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll), Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind). Obama Shows Up Trump With Wednesday Voting Message To America, Jared Kushner Hit With Pre-Election Legal Action Over ‘Slumlord’ Activity, Federal Judge Thwarts Trump Attempt To Sabotage Mail-In Voting, 3 Federal Judges Rule Unanimously Against Trump’s Census Sabotage, Mike Pence Humiliated By Leaked Clip Of ’60 Minutes’ Interview, Obama Posts Defiant Thursday Video To Save America From Trump. The state second most likely to deliver a decisive winning margin for the victorious candidate is Florida, and after that comes Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona. A super simple, state poll based projection model for the 2020 Presidential election. RCP Electoral College Map. The bar/arrow will be blue if it's now more Democratic or red it it's more Republican. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 electoral map forecast. You can click '2016 Polls' or '2020 Results' just below this to toggle them on/off for a clearer view. Presidential candidates need to secure at least 270 electoral votes in order to win the presidency, and according to FiveThirtyEight’s latest forecast, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a 75 percent chance of winning the electoral college. Here we see how each state currently compares to 2016 (both the 2016 polling and results). Any review of the various 2020 Electoral College combinations should begin with Florida, a state key to all presidential fortunes since the 2000 presidential election. Biden is also in the lead in polling averages in Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona — although as of Wednesday afternoon, FiveThirtyEight put his Florida lead at just 2.3 percent. The current electoral college projection from NPR. Note that NPR is using the 'Likely' terminology to cover what others call 'Safe'.

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